Essays

Climate change is already happening, and further increases in temperature are inevitable. Global warming will have an increasing and significant effect on the environment and the economy, with implications In virtually all nations including India. In fact, climate change is no longer a distant threat as catastrophic events have already started occurring, and are likely to increase in frequency.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) amply demonstrates that we are already experiencing climate change induced by human activities. Ever since the invention of fire, human activities have generated carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. However, till the advent of the Industrial Revolution, these emissions were well within the carrying capacity of the atmosphere. The Industrial Revolution, based on the combustion of hydrocarbons—initially coal, later also petroleum and natural gas, led to ever-increasing levels of emission and accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, precipitating climate change.

Historically, and even currently, the excessive levels of emission of greenhouse gases have originated in the industrialized countries. Each inhabitant of the planet has an equal right to the atmosphere. But by having grossly exceeding their fair share of atmospheric resources, the industrialized countries have caused climate change. India's per capita carbon dioxide emissions are just over one tonne, compared to the OECI) average of over 11 tonnes. If all countries had the same per capita emission levels as India, the planet would not have faced a climate change Problem.

Though the responsibility for causing climate change lies with the developed countries, its main victims will be the world's poor. It is because the developed countries will be able to adapt to climate change much more successfully as they possess the requisite capital, technology and human resources. These countries can build embankments to protect coastal areas threatened by sea-level rise, construct physical infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme weather events, switch over to new seed and plant varieties better suited to cope with climate change, and adopt water conservation and other necessary measures. Lack of financial resources or technological know-how will not be a deterrent to these countries. For example, the Alps might lose their snow cover due to climate change, posing a threat to the ski resorts of Switzerland, the playground of the rich and famous. However, the Swiss may be able to adapt successfully by converting the famous winter resorts to cool hill stations to which Europeans might flee in summer to escape the heat of planis.

Low-income countries, on the other hand, will be much more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Poverty stricken people, dwelling in flimsy huts, living in villages lacking durable infrastructure and decent communications, will be unable to cope with the sweeping transformation that may be wrought by climate change.

Responding to the urgency of the challenge. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh constituted a high-level Council on Climate Change which has put in place a National Action Plan on Climate Change. The action Plan includes constituting eight Missions including the National solar Mission to addresses both aspects of a response to climate change, namely, adaptation and mitigation.

Currently, scientists and climatologists have only a broad picture of the likely impacts of climate change on India. They are not yet able to predict in detail what impacts may be expected in a specific area (say, disstrict or sub-division). Hence, it is not feasible to design short-term strategies exclusively for climate change. Rather, it would be prudent to identify elements in the existing development plans which are likely to also enhance our capacity for adapting to climate change and to accord higher priority to these programmes. Some examples of development programmes that also promote adaptation are those related to irrigation, water conservation, flood control, coastal zone protection and disaster management. Many, if not most, development programmes have significant co-benefits for adaptation to climate change. Thus, development itself is the best form of adaptation.

In accordance with the provisions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India plays her due role in international initiatives to mitigate climate change. India's Initial Communication to UNFCCC provides a detailed account of its response to climate change.   The crucial question, however, is how to address mitigation concerns without diverting scarce resources from the primary task of economic and social development. The answer lies in proactively identifying "win- win" measures, that are primarily intended to promote development but which also yield significant co -benefits in the form of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Cost-effective energy efficiency and energy conservation measures can simultaneously advance India's development and climate change objectives. There is considerable potential for action on this front in all major areas. For example, in the power generation area, there is scope for adopting certain clean-coal technologies that satisfy the condition o f cost-effectiveness. This applies also to efficient power transmission .and distribution systems. In the transportation area, public transportation systems should be rapidly expanded in order to avoid undue reliance on the use of private vehicles, thereby limiting rising emissions in this sector the use of bio-fuels should be encouraged, provided such fuels are not produced at the expense of food crops. In the industrial sector, special attention should be paid to improving energy efficiency measures wherever these do not entail major incremental costs.

Energy conservation and energy efficiency measures serve to promote India's energy security interests. The measures for diversification of energy sources from petroleum to alternative fuels and sources include promotion of renewable energy—wind, solar and hydropower; promotion of nuclear energy; and new initiatives for harnessing domestic coal-bed methane. While these measures are primarily designed to promote energy security, they also generate important climate change co-benefits in the form of reduced carbon emissions.

In some cases, measures designed to address important health-related local environmental concerns can also produce important co-benefits for climate change mitigation. For example, the decision to replace diesel by CNG as the fuel in the Delhi public transportation system was intended to address public health concerns arising from air pollution from suspended particulates. However, it also produces significant climate change co-benefits by reducing carbon emissions. Similarly, improved urban waste disposal systems result in cutting down emissions of methane (a greenhouse gas) even though their primary objective is to address public health concerns.

Thus the measures that simultaneously promote India's economic and social development objectives and global climate change mitigation should be adopted in India's own national interest. It must be recognized, however, that India can only he expected to pursue measures that are cost-effective in terms of achieving its developmental objectives. Measures involving significant incremental costs can be implemented only if these additional costs are covered through international cooperation. India cannot be expected to adopt measures that would slow down its development and imperil the capacity of future generations to cope with the impacts of climate change.

In reality, climate change is here and there is a need to go beyond merely recognising the scientific fact of climate change. It is imperative in recognize the notion that was set out in the Stem Report that a risk postponed, is a risk multiplied. Now is the time to find the right response and act because the long-term stability of our environment and economy depend on it.