Essays

The world has a population of 6 billion. India alone has a population of 1 billion. Despite the fact that India was the first country in the world to have a population policy. But is this mammoth population really caused for alarm? It could be more important to understand the factors that led to this population explosion and the complex links between population growth rates and levels of development. And to acknowledge that India is in the midst of a demographic transition, with fertility rates definitely declining, though not as fast as was expected.

In the year 2000, much was made of the fact that as the world's population reached six billion, India's share was a massive one billion. As one writer noted, alarm bells were sounded the world over that the first country in the world to have a population policy had failed miserably in the effort. However, demographers have pointed out that there is really no reason to panic.

India is in the middle of what demographers describe as the 'demographic transition'. It has moved from a situation of high birth rate and high death rate to an intermediary stage of high birth rate and low death rate, but is yet to reach a point of stability, with a low birth rate and a low death rate. This intermediary period will naturally see high rates of population growth.

Demographers note that the latest census figures show that India has entered the phase of a declining fertility rate, though the actual decline may be less than what was targeted in the preceding years. Even though the IMR has almost halved in 50 years, it is still significantly higher than in developed countries, as well as in countries like Sri Lanka, Cuba and China. Many couples have large families as insurance against multiple infant and child deaths.

Thirty-six percent of the population is in the reproductive age group. That proportion will go up before it comes down. Even if these men and women have very small families, the sheer numbers of the next generation will result in a further swelling of the population before it Starts shrinking in future generations.

One in two girls marry before they turn 18, which is the minimum legal age of marriage. Many of them start childbearing almost immediately, with second and third children following at intervals of less than 24 months — which in turn reduces each child's chances of survival.

India was the first country in the world with a population policy. Though the actual policy was first formulated only in 1976, the subject was discussed in various reports on the health services and taken up in the First Five Year Plan in 1952. When India became independent, population growth was seen as a major impediment to the country's socio- economic development — and population 'control' was seen as integral to the development process. Population growth was seen as an urgent problem related to economic development with limited resources. While an improved standard of living would eventually lead to a reduction in the birth rate, this would take time, and meanwhile, it was felt, this high birth rate would retard development. At the same time, family planning would benefit both individual

families as well as women's health.

It is argued that communities swamped with the burden of providing for large families will not be able to move forward. But it has been demonstrated that, as communities become confident that their children will survive till adulthood, and as they become financially stable and able to control their destinies, they decide to have fewer children. But the motivating factors are less likely to be aggressive family planning programmes, or incentives and 'disincentives'.

They are more likely to be a complex of enabling conditions — work, food, health and associated services. The Indian government's health expenditure (as a proportion of its GNP) is one of the lowest in the world. The government's push for a small family together with an unethical medical profession has combined to further distort a sex ratio skewed against the girl-child. Women's groups assert that they advocate family planning, in the interests of the poor and women, based on voluntary choice.

Women have the right to decide the number of children they want and access to safe and affordable contraception,

which they can control.

However, the population programme has encouraged research into potentially hazardous, long acting, provider- controlled, contraceptives targeting women. Injectable contraceptives and sub dermal implants could cause irreversible damage to the health of women and their children. Women's groups note that these drugs are being up proved by Indian drug regulatory authorities without the mandatory trials.